18 September 2026
The UAE is set to be the fastest growing retail market in the Gulf over the next five years. According to the 10th edition of the GCC Retail Industry report by Alpen Capital, released on Wednesday 16 September 2026, UAE retail sales are forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.6 percent between 2025 and 2030 and reach USD 129.5 billion, about AED 476 billion, by 2030. Retail sales across the six GCC states are projected to rise by USD 57.3 billion, from USD 329.6 billion in 2025 to USD 386.9 billion in 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 3.3 percent, while the region adds about 4.6 million square metres of organised retail space and takes the total to 27.0 million square metres.
What Alpen Capital published
Alpen Capital is an investment banking advisory firm, and its GCC Retail Industry report is a recurring study of the Gulf retail sector; the 2026 edition is the tenth in the series. It covers retail sales forecasts by country and by segment, duty free sales at the main Gulf airports, the pipeline of organised retail space, growth drivers and risks, and profiles of selected retail companies operating in the region. The figures below come from the firm’s release of 16 September 2026 and were reported by Fast Company Middle East on 18 September 2026.
Two points frame the numbers. First, this is a forecast by a private advisory firm, not official statistics. Second, the forecast starts from a weaker year: according to the release, retail sales in 2026 declined amid geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain vulnerabilities, and the projected growth assumes a recovery in consumer spending from that point.
Country forecasts to 2030
Growth rates for individual GCC states fall in a narrow band of 2.5 to 3.6 percent a year. Saudi Arabia remains the largest market in absolute terms, while the UAE posts the highest growth rate.
| Market | Retail sales growth, CAGR 2025-2030 | Retail sales in 2030 | AED equivalent (our conversion) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCC total | 3.3 percent | USD 386.9 billion | about AED 1.42 trillion |
| UAE | 3.6 percent, the highest in the GCC | USD 129.5 billion | about AED 476 billion |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.2 percent | USD 166.6 billion | about AED 612 billion |
| Qatar | 3.2 percent | not stated in the release | not stated |
| Kuwait | 2.5 percent | not stated in the release | not stated |
| Duty free at the airports of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Bahrain | 4.8 percent | USD 4.3 billion | about AED 15.8 billion |
AED amounts are our conversion at the fixed rate of AED 3.6725 per US dollar. On these forecasts the UAE would account for about a third of all GCC retail sales in 2030, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia together for about three quarters. The release does not give separate figures for Oman and Bahrain.
Food grows faster than non-food
Across the GCC, food retail sales are expected to grow at 4.1 percent a year between 2025 and 2030, against 2.7 percent for non-food. The report links part of this to changing demand: retailers are widening their range of organic, fresh and minimally processed products as interest in healthy food grows.
It also flags the other side of the food story. The region relies heavily on imported food, which exposes it to supply disruptions that can push up inflation and reduce the purchasing power of consumers.
4.6 million square metres of new retail space
On gross leasable area, Alpen Capital assumes that 80 percent of projected additions are completed. Under that scenario about 4.6 million square metres of organised retail space comes to market across the GCC between 2025 and 2030, lifting the total to 27.0 million square metres, a compound annual growth rate of 3.8 percent. The firm itself describes this as a modest growth scenario.
According to Fast Company Middle East, much of the expansion is expected around flagship malls and mixed use destinations, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with new retail increasingly built into larger master planned communities and paired with dining, entertainment and leisure. Recent UAE examples on our news feed include Aldar’s Saadiyat Grove in Abu Dhabi with more than 100 global brands and The Yard, the first retail hub on Palm Jebel Ali, due in 2027.
Retail property prices are moving as well. Property Finder data for the first half of 2026 showed the average sale price of a retail unit on Al Marjan Island up 348 percent year on year and retail rents in Deira up 61.5 percent, as covered in our report on UAE commercial property in H1 2026.
Why the UAE leads the forecast
The release attributes the growth of the two largest markets, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to expanding populations and well developed infrastructure that makes them attractive shopping destinations. For the region as a whole it lists five main drivers:
- a growing population with a high concentration of expatriates and high net worth individuals;
- rising tourism, including religious tourism, and the growing role of the GCC as a hub for global business, entertainment and sporting events;
- resilient economic activity supported by higher oil prices and strong non-hydrocarbon growth;
- international and domestic brands entering and expanding their presence across the region;
- the spread of e-commerce and quick commerce platforms, which add revenue and digital reach for operators.
Duty free is a separate line in the report. Sales at the airports of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Bahrain are expected to reach USD 4.3 billion by 2030, growing at 4.8 percent a year from 2025, on the back of higher passenger traffic, tourism promotion and airport capacity expansion.
How retailers are changing their model
The report describes a shift in how stores are used and how retailers compete for customers:
- omni-channel models, with stores working as fulfilment hubs for online orders;
- buy online and pick up in store, buy now pay later and same day delivery offered as standard services;
- pop-up stores as a flexible way to enter a new market, test a concept and meet customers;
- artificial intelligence used for advanced analytics and automated decision making across functions;
- private labels, promotional offers and digital platforms aimed at value conscious shoppers.
“A competitive retail landscape is driving GCC operators to increasingly adopt AI and advanced analytics to enable personalised customer recommendations, automated decision-making and improvements in operational efficiency,” said Hameed Noor Mohamed, Managing Director of Alpen Capital (ME) Limited. He added that operators are expected to pursue consolidation to streamline operations and expand market share. T.M. Lakshmanan, Chief Executive Officer of Alpen Capital (ME) Limited, said the current geopolitical situation is weighing on industry dynamics, but that the firm expects retail sales to regain momentum and keep a steady growth trajectory.
Risks named in the report
The forecast comes with explicit caveats. The dependence of the GCC on hydrocarbon revenues exposes it to global macroeconomic headwinds, and lingering geopolitical concerns could weigh on consumer sentiment. Heavy reliance on food imports adds supply side risk. Competition from international brands and fast growing e-commerce platforms has pushed retailers into aggressive promotions and discounting, which supports sales but puts pressure on profit margins. The report expects consolidation in the industry to accelerate as companies look for scale and profitability.
What this means for companies entering UAE retail
A forecast does not change any rule or fee, but it does describe the market a new retail business will compete in: more space in large mixed use destinations, more competition from international brands and online platforms, and customers who expect to order online, pay in instalments and collect or receive goods the same day. Before entering, it is worth working through a short checklist:
- decide how you will sell: a physical store, an online shop, wholesale to other retailers, or a combination of these channels;
- match the legal structure to that model; selling directly to consumers in the UAE generally points to a mainland licence, while free zone companies usually reach the local market through distributors or other arrangements, as explained in our guide to mainland vs free zone companies in the UAE;
- list every product category you plan to sell, since food, cosmetics, electronics and general trading can require different licence activities and approvals;
- plan payments early, because card acquiring, payment links and instalment providers all require a corporate bank account;
- budget for margin pressure, since the report expects promotions and discounting to remain part of the market.
How Atlant Capital can help
We help retail and e-commerce businesses enter the UAE market from the first decision to a working company. That covers the choice between mainland and free zone, the selection of licence activities that match the product range, company setup in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and other emirates, and corporate bank account opening, which a business needs before it can accept card and online payments. For the full sequence of steps from choosing a jurisdiction to receiving a licence, see our UAE company formation guide.
Conclusion
Alpen Capital expects the GCC retail market to grow at a steady 3.3 percent a year to USD 386.9 billion by 2030, with the UAE growing fastest at 3.6 percent to USD 129.5 billion. That growth is expected to come alongside 4.6 million square metres of new retail space, a move towards omni-channel and AI driven operations, and tighter margins from competition. For a company planning to sell in the UAE, the practical questions are structure, licence activities and payments, and they are best settled before a lease is signed.
Source: Alpen Capital, Fast Company Middle East.
FAQ
How big will the UAE retail market be by 2030?
Alpen Capital forecasts UAE retail sales to reach USD 129.5 billion by 2030, about AED 476 billion at the fixed rate of AED 3.6725 per US dollar. That implies compound annual growth of 3.6 percent between 2025 and 2030, the highest rate among the GCC states. The forecast comes from the 10th edition of the GCC Retail Industry report, released on 16 September 2026.
Which GCC country has the fastest growing retail market?
The UAE, with forecast retail sales growth of 3.6 percent a year between 2025 and 2030. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are expected to grow at 3.2 percent a year and Kuwait at 2.5 percent. Saudi Arabia remains the largest market, with retail sales forecast at USD 166.6 billion by 2030.
How much new retail space will the GCC add by 2030?
About 4.6 million square metres of organised retail space between 2025 and 2030, assuming 80 percent of projected developments are completed. That would take the total organised retail gross leasable area in the GCC to 27.0 million square metres, a compound annual growth rate of 3.8 percent. Alpen Capital describes this as a modest growth scenario.
What is driving retail growth in the Gulf?
According to Alpen Capital, the main drivers are population growth with a high share of expatriates and high net worth individuals, rising tourism, resilient economic activity, new international brands and the spread of e-commerce and quick commerce. Food retail is expected to grow faster than non-food, at 4.1 percent a year against 2.7 percent. The report also notes that retail sales declined in 2026 amid geopolitical uncertainty before the forecast recovery.
