14 November 2026
On 13 November 2026, Fitch Ratings affirmed the United Arab Emirates’ Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at AA- with a Stable Outlook. Fitch estimates that the UAE consolidated budget will stay in surplus at 4% of GDP in 2026 despite a near 20% rise in spending, that consolidated government debt will reach 22.8% of GDP against an AA category median of 45%, and that Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets will equal about 180% of UAE GDP in 2026, among the highest of all sovereigns the agency rates.
The figures in brief
| Indicator | Fitch figure | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings | AA-, Stable Outlook | affirmed 13 November 2026 |
| Consolidated budget balance | surplus of 4% of GDP | 2026 estimate |
| Government spending | near 20% rise | 2026 estimate |
| Consolidated government debt | 22.8% of GDP (22.6% at end-2025) | 2026 forecast |
| AA category median debt | 45% of GDP | comparison |
| Abu Dhabi sovereign net foreign assets | about 180% of UAE GDP | 2026 |
| Real GDP | growth of 0.5% | 2026 forecast |
| Non-oil GDP | contraction of 1.5% | 2026 forecast |
| Dubai GDP | contraction of close to 5% | 2026 forecast |
| Central Bank FX reserves | USD 265 billion | August 2026 |
| Country Ceiling | AA+, two notches above the sovereign rating | 13 November 2026 |
Why the rating held at AA-
Fitch says the AA- rating reflects three strengths: low consolidated government debt, a strong net external asset position and high GDP per capita. The rating also benefits from the foreign assets of Abu Dhabi, which Fitch rates AA with a Stable Outlook. Against these strengths the agency weighs governance indicators that are weak relative to rating peers, high geopolitical risk, a high dependence on hydrocarbon income and the significant leverage of government-related entities (GREs).
The Stable Outlook rests on the demonstrated resilience of oil export revenues during the Iran war, which, in Fitch’s words, largely offsets the immediate negative impact of the war. The agency also points to abundant fiscal and external buffers and expects individual emirates, rather than the federal government, to bear the cost of the war.
Fitch’s Sovereign Rating Model gives the UAE a score equivalent to AA. The rating committee then applied a one-notch downward adjustment for high geopolitical risks, shown by the ongoing Iran war, and for the high reliance on hydrocarbons as a source of fiscal and external revenues.
Oil revenue and the Strait of Hormuz
Fitch expects a gradual re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz from the first quarter of 2027. Until then, the agency assumes periodic strikes and counterstrikes, mostly on military targets and ships, which may disrupt Abu Dhabi’s oil flows, but it does not anticipate significant physical damage. It does not rule out a re-escalation of hostilities later in 2027 or beyond.
According to Fitch, Abu Dhabi’s 2026 export revenues will be higher than its pre-war forecasts. Two factors explain this: higher prices, at an average of USD 87 per barrel in 2026, and higher export volumes through the pipeline to Fujairah and through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection. Hydrocarbon GDP is projected to grow by about 7% in 2026 and by 26% in 2027, when oil production will no longer be constrained by OPEC+ quotas.
The non-oil economy and Dubai
Fitch now projects UAE real GDP growth of 0.5% in 2026, with non-oil GDP contracting by 1.5% and Dubai’s GDP shrinking by close to 5%. The agency expects Dubai’s real GDP to remain below its 2025 level in 2027, as logistics and manufacturing are disrupted and tourism and expat inflows return only slowly. All emirates are expected to put recovery programmes in place, but Fitch expects non-oil trend growth to stay below pre-war levels over its forecast period.
Budget, debt and buffers
The consolidated budget is estimated to remain in surplus at 4% of GDP in 2026. Fitch expects surpluses in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and budget deficits in Ras Al Khaimah, which it rates A+ with a Negative Outlook, and in Sharjah, which is not rated. Spending by GREs is also expected to rise significantly.
The federal government is small, with revenues and expenditure close to 4% of GDP. It is required by law to balance its current budget, excluding capital expenditure, and it covers essential public services such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, immigration and security.
Consolidated government debt is forecast at 22.8% of GDP in 2026, up from 22.6% at end-2025. Fitch projects Abu Dhabi’s and Dubai’s debt to be broadly stable, Sharjah to borrow to fund deficits and the federal government to keep building its yield curve. The agency estimates contingent liabilities from GREs of the emirates and the federal government at about 63% of UAE GDP in 2024.
Central Bank FX reserves stood at USD 265 billion in August 2026, down from over USD 300 billion in February. Fitch links the decline to modest war-related capital outflows and to depositor flows to India under the Reserve Bank of India’s US dollar deposit scheme. It projects the current account surplus to fall to 6.7% in 2026 from 13.3% in 2025. UAE banks, in Fitch’s base case, appear resilient thanks to sound financial metrics and ample liquidity and capital buffers; under a severe war scenario, real estate lending is named as the most likely source of stress.
What changed since the May review
Fitch also affirmed the UAE at AA- with a Stable Outlook in May 2026. Comparing the two commentaries shows how the agency’s view of 2026 has moved.
| Indicator | May 2026 review | November 2026 review |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP, 2026 | contraction of 4.8% | growth of 0.5% |
| Non-oil GDP, 2026 | contraction of 3.2% | contraction of 1.5% |
| Dubai GDP, 2026 | contraction of close to 7% | contraction of close to 5% |
| Budget surplus, 2026 | 4.5% of GDP | 4% of GDP |
| Government debt, 2026 | 27% of GDP | 22.8% of GDP |
| Expected re-opening of Hormuz | gradual, from July 2026 | gradual, from the first quarter of 2027 |
Fitch’s estimate of end-2025 debt itself moved from 24.3% of GDP in May to 22.6% in November, so the two debt forecasts are not directly comparable.
What could move the rating
Fitch lists two groups of triggers for a downgrade: a prolonged deterioration in the security environment, including significant damage to energy assets or prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz with a significant impact on Abu Dhabi’s economy and public finances; and a substantial erosion of fiscal and external positions, for example through a sustained fall in oil prices or materialising contingent liabilities. An upgrade could follow further improvement of the consolidated balance sheet, a guarantee from Abu Dhabi for the timely service of federal government debt, or structural progress such as lower oil dependence, stronger governance and lower geopolitical risk.
What this means for companies in the UAE
A sovereign rating does not change any licence fee, tax rate or visa rule. It is, however, one of the inputs banks, insurers and foreign counterparties use when they assess UAE risk. Several points from the Fitch commentary are practical for business owners:
- The Country Ceiling of AA+ reflects Fitch’s view that there are strong constraints against capital or exchange controls that would stop the private sector from converting local currency into foreign currency and paying non-resident creditors.
- Fitch names real estate lending as the most likely source of stress for UAE banks under a severe war scenario, which is relevant for companies that finance property.
- Dubai’s GDP is forecast to stay below its 2025 level in 2027, with logistics, manufacturing and tourism named as the affected areas, which matters for businesses whose revenue depends on these sectors.
- Federal finances are small and balanced by law, while the cost of the war is expected to fall on individual emirates, so local programmes may differ from emirate to emirate.
How Atlant Capital can help
We help founders and companies set up and run their business in the UAE, from company setup on the mainland or in a free zone to opening a corporate bank account with a UAE bank. Before you apply, read our UAE bank account opening guide, which explains the documents banks ask for and how compliance reviews work. For the emirate-level view, see our article on how Fitch affirmed Ras Al Khaimah at A+.
Conclusion
Fitch kept the UAE at AA- with a Stable Outlook on 13 November 2026, citing a 4% of GDP budget surplus, debt of 22.8% of GDP and Abu Dhabi’s foreign assets of about 180% of GDP. Compared with May, the agency now sees 0.5% real growth in 2026 instead of a 4.8% contraction, while it still expects Dubai’s economy to shrink by close to 5% this year and the Strait of Hormuz to re-open gradually only from early 2027.
Source: Fitch Ratings, Al Khaleej.
FAQ
What is the UAE’s Fitch credit rating in November 2026?
Fitch Ratings affirmed the UAE’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at AA- with a Stable Outlook on 13 November 2026. The Country Ceiling is AA+, two notches higher, and Abu Dhabi is rated AA with a Stable Outlook.
Why did Fitch keep a stable outlook for the UAE during the Iran war?
Fitch cites the demonstrated resilience of oil export revenues, supported by higher prices, at an average of USD 87 per barrel in 2026, and exports via the Fujairah pipeline and through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection. It also points to abundant fiscal and external buffers and expects individual emirates, not the federal government, to bear the cost of the war.
How high is UAE government debt according to Fitch?
Fitch forecasts consolidated UAE government debt at 22.8% of GDP in 2026, up from 22.6% at end-2025. That is well below the AA category median of 45% of GDP. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets are estimated at about 180% of UAE GDP in 2026.
What does Fitch expect for Dubai’s economy?
Fitch projects Dubai’s GDP to shrink by close to 5% in 2026 and to remain below its 2025 level in 2027, as logistics and manufacturing are disrupted and tourism and expat inflows return slowly. For the UAE as a whole, it expects real GDP growth of 0.5% in 2026, with non-oil GDP down 1.5%.
