Gulf Family Businesses to Hand USD 1 Trillion (AED 3.67 Trillion) to the Next Generation Within a Decade: Private Equity Targets USD 50-250 Million Mid-Market Companies in Logistics, Healthcare, Manufacturing and Education (AGBI)

2026-09-07

Family-owned companies in the Gulf are expected to pass an estimated USD 1 trillion (AED 3.67 trillion) of assets to the next generation over the coming decade, and that handover is opening a window for private equity in the region’s mid-market, industry professionals told AGBI in an analysis published on Monday 7 September 2026. In the UAE, family businesses account for about 90% of private-sector companies and, by the Ministry of Economy and Tourism’s 2025 estimate, around 60% of GDP and 80% of the workforce. Funds already active in the segment include Bahrain’s Investcorp, the UAE’s Gulf Islamic Investments (GII) and Saudi Arabia’s Jadwa Investment, while global names such as Blackstone, Bain Capital and KKR concentrate on the largest corporates and sovereign-backed projects. The target range named by the professionals AGBI spoke to is companies worth USD 50 million to USD 250 million (AED 184 million to AED 918 million) in logistics, healthcare, manufacturing, education and business services. This article sets out the figures behind the handover, the legal framework the UAE has built for family businesses since 2022, how private equity enters and exits such companies, and what the trend means for a business that operates in the UAE or plans to open one here.

The USD 1 trillion figure and where it comes from

The estimate that AED 3.67 trillion (USD 1 trillion) of assets will change hands between generations across the Middle East within a decade was cited by DIFC at the launch of the DIFC Family Wealth Centre on 1 March 2023, according to the Government of Dubai Media Office, and it has been repeated since by advisers, banks and the business press. Khaleej Times used the same USD 1 trillion figure with a 2030 horizon in an article of 20 May 2026 by Jason Schloetzer, associate professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, which also quoted the survival statistics that circulate globally: only 30% of family businesses continue into the second generation, 12% into the third and 3% into the fourth and beyond. The pattern is visible in the UAE. HSBC’s Global Entrepreneurial Wealth Report, published on 4 June 2025, found that 48% of UAE entrepreneurs had no plan for transferring their wealth or business (the global average was 53%), 39% intended to pass the business to the next generation (34% globally) and 10% planned to sell (10% globally).

Source: as indicated in each row. AED amounts are converted at the dirham’s fixed rate of 3.6725 to the US dollar.

Why the handover creates deals

The professionals quoted by AGBI describe a simple mechanism. Over the last 30 to 40 years founders across the Gulf built companies that now face a decision: pass them on, sell them, or bring in a partner. “Some obviously want the second generation to inherit and continue, some don’t, and so there are these liquidity events that are happening,” said Issam Al-Mamlouk, a former JPMorgan and Public Investment Fund executive who recently founded IM Mamlouk & Co, a private equity firm that targets companies worth USD 50 million to USD 250 million. Founders may prefer a sale to a transfer to their children, and heirs may want to keep a stake without running daily operations and partner with an outside investor instead. Aamir Rehman, an associate professor at Columbia Business School in New York, told AGBI that a generational handover typically “creates a window of opportunity for private equity investors to invest and for business families to have a capital event”, and called the Gulf’s demographics today “highly supportive” of that.

The segment has lagged the rest of the market. The Gulf has a developed venture capital ecosystem, and large buyouts by international houses draw the headlines, but the mid-market still has “significantly more deals and opportunities” than sponsors ready to deploy capital, Al-Mamlouk said. Large global funds do look at mid-sized companies, but the size of the cheques such funds must write to move their returns restricts them, noted Aliasgar Tambawala, co-chief investment officer of the Dubai wealth manager Klay Group. He described the UAE mid-market as “incredibly vibrant” thanks to local investors and regional asset managers targeting resilient, consumer-driven and structurally vital sectors, and pointed to where the money is going inside them: healthcare investment is moving from large hospitals to specialised medical facilities, logistics deals focus on cold-chain and e-commerce fulfilment, and fintech investors target B2B payments and compliance software rather than consumer apps.

Who is buying and how they exit

Bahrain’s Investcorp, the UAE’s Gulf Islamic Investments Group and Saudi Arabia’s Jadwa Investment are among the fund managers already active in the mid-market, according to Al-Mamlouk, alongside new entrants such as his own firm. Blackstone, Bain Capital and KKR are present in the region but concentrate on the largest corporates and sovereign projects; Blackstone, for example, announced its return to Dubai with a DIFC office in July 2026. The wider deal market gives the segment a benchmark: Grant Thornton’s review of the first half of 2026 counted 192 completed transactions in the GCC worth USD 65.1 billion, of which the UAE accounted for USD 52.6 billion, or 80.9%, and 131 deals.

Exits are broadening beyond initial public offerings. Rehman named three groups of buyers for companies that private equity has grown: corporates in the same industry, other financial investors through mergers and acquisitions, and public markets through IPOs. “We already see sovereign investors allocating more capital to domestic and regional markets, which in turn encourages domestic PE,” he said, adding that regional stock exchanges are keen on more listings as investors seek diversification. Two transactions show that strategic buyers can be global or regional: Uber completed its acquisition of the Dubai-based ride-hailing company Careem for about USD 3.1 billion (AED 11.4 billion) on 2 January 2020, and the Emirati group Al-Futtaim completed the purchase of 49.95% of Saudi Arabia’s Cenomi Retail for SAR 2.52 billion (about USD 672 million, AED 2.47 billion) on 15 September 2025.

The UAE framework for family businesses since 2022

The UAE has spent four years building rules that make a handover, a partial sale or the entry of an investor easier to structure. The central instrument is Federal Decree-Law No. 37 of 2022 on Family Businesses, issued on 10 October 2022 and in force since January 2023. It applies to companies in which a single family holds the majority of the capital and which opt in to a unified register of family businesses kept by the Ministry of Economy. A registered family company may issue different classes of shares, including non-voting shares that carry profit rights (Article 12), may buy back up to 30% of its own shares to let a family member exit (Article 11), and gives family members a statutory pre-emption right when shares are offered to outsiders, with transfers to third parties requiring approval by holders of at least 75% of the capital; transfers to a spouse or first-degree relative are exempt. Disputes can be settled by a reconciliation committee formed by the family. On 26 December 2023 the Ministry of Economy launched the Unified Family Businesses Registry and reviewed four Cabinet decisions implementing the law: No. 109 of 2023 on registration, No. 106 of 2023 on the family charter, No. 107 of 2023 on share buybacks and No. 108 of 2023 on share classes.

What the handover means for a business in the UAE

• Founders and heirs have a menu of structures, not only “sell or keep”. A registered family company can separate voting control from profit rights through share classes, buy out a departing branch of the family with up to 30% of its own shares, and bring in a private equity minority while keeping the family in charge. The family charter, filed online under Cabinet Decision No. 106 of 2023, fixes the rules before an investor arrives.
• Investors buy documented companies. The funds AGBI describes look for resilient cash flows in logistics, healthcare, manufacturing, education and business services. A mainland or free zone company with audited accounts, a corporate tax registration and a clean register of shareholders moves from term sheet to closing faster than one whose records live with the founder.
• A change of owners is a licensing event. Selling a stake in a UAE company requires an amendment of the licence and the memorandum of association with the licensing authority, updated establishment cards and, for a foreign corporate buyer, attested corporate documents. Buyers that plan to consolidate several assets usually set up a holding company first; see our company setup service. DIFC opened its prescribed company (SPV) regime to every applicant in 2026, which gives families and funds a holding vehicle inside the financial centre.
• Deal proceeds and holding vehicles need a bank account. UAE banks apply full KYC to a new holding company or SPV: licence, ownership chart up to the individual owners, source of funds and the transaction documents. The steps are in our bank account opening service.
• New management needs visas. Directors and executives an investor places in an acquired company need residence visas and work permits sponsored by that company; see work visas and residency.
• Larger deals now go through merger control. Since 30 July 2026 a transaction must be notified to the Ministry of Economy at least 90 days before closing when the parties’ combined UAE sales exceed AED 300 million or their combined market share exceeds 40%; closing without clearance carries a fine of AED 50,000 to AED 500,000. Deals in the USD 50 million to USD 250 million range need to check the thresholds; details are in our guide to the UAE merger control regime.

How Atlant Capital can help

Atlant Capital registers companies on the mainland and in the UAE free zones, including holding companies and acquisition vehicles for family groups and investors, selects the jurisdiction and the activity list for trading, services, consulting, technology and investment businesses and prepares the licence documents (company setup). We open corporate accounts with UAE banks and prepare the file a bank expects from a new company or a special purpose vehicle (bank account opening), and we handle work visas and residency for owners, directors and staff (work visa and residency). Accounting, audit, VAT and corporate tax filing are provided by licensed accounting firms from our partner network.

Conclusion

An estimated USD 1 trillion (AED 3.67 trillion) of family-owned assets in the Middle East will pass to the next generation within a decade, and the professionals quoted by AGBI on 7 September 2026 expect part of that transfer to take the form of sales, partial exits and partnerships with private equity rather than inheritance alone. The funds named, Investcorp, GII, Jadwa and new entrants such as IM Mamlouk & Co, target companies worth USD 50 million to USD 250 million in logistics, healthcare, manufacturing, education and business services, a segment where deals still outnumber the sponsors ready to fund them. In the UAE, where family businesses make up about 90% of private-sector companies and around 60% of GDP, the legal tools for such transactions have been in place since Federal Decree-Law No. 37 of 2022 and the 2023 Cabinet decisions on registration, family charters, share classes and buybacks. For a company doing business here, the practical points are the licensing, banking and visa steps that accompany any change of ownership, the merger control filing that applies to larger deals since 30 July 2026, and the value that buyers place on audited, well-documented targets.

FAQ

How much will Gulf family businesses transfer to the next generation?

An estimated AED 3.67 trillion (USD 1 trillion) of assets is expected to pass to the next generation across the Middle East within a decade. The figure was cited by DIFC at the launch of the DIFC Family Wealth Centre on 1 March 2023 and repeated by AGBI on 7 September 2026. In the UAE, family businesses account for about 90% of private-sector companies and, by the Ministry of Economy and Tourism’s 2025 estimate, around 60% of GDP and 80% of the workforce.

Which private equity funds target mid-sized companies in the Gulf?

According to AGBI, Bahrain’s Investcorp, the UAE’s Gulf Islamic Investments (GII) and Saudi Arabia’s Jadwa Investment are already active in the mid-market, and new firms such as IM Mamlouk & Co target companies worth USD 50 million to USD 250 million. Blackstone, Bain Capital and KKR are present in the region but concentrate on the largest corporates and sovereign-backed projects. The sectors named as having the most potential are logistics, healthcare, manufacturing, education and business services.

What does the UAE Family Businesses Law allow?

Federal Decree-Law No. 37 of 2022, issued on 10 October 2022 and in force since January 2023, lets a majority family-owned company register in the unified register of family businesses kept by the Ministry of Economy. A registered company may issue different classes of shares including non-voting profit shares, may buy back up to 30% of its own shares to let a family member exit, and gives family members a pre-emption right on transfers to outsiders, which require approval by holders of at least 75% of the capital. Four Cabinet decisions of 2023 set the procedures for registration, the family charter, buybacks and share classes.

Does a private equity deal for a UAE company need regulatory approval?

Since 30 July 2026, yes, if the transaction meets the thresholds of the UAE merger control regime under Cabinet Decision No. 59 of 2026: combined annual sales of the parties in the relevant UAE market above AED 300 million, or a combined market share above 40%. Such a deal must be notified to the Ministry of Economy at least 90 days before closing and cannot close before clearance; closing without it carries a fine of AED 50,000 to AED 500,000. Every deal, regardless of size, also requires the licensing authority to register the change of shareholders and amend the licence.