7 November 2026
The UAE is set to become the world’s largest generator of solar PV electricity per person by 2031, according to Renewables 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) report published on 6 November 2026. On the IEA chart, UAE output reaches just over 4,000 kWh per person in 2031, up from about 1,500 kWh in 2025, when the country ranked second behind Australia. Oman and Qatar take third and fifth place. Across the Middle East and North Africa, renewable capacity is forecast to more than double to almost 200 GW by 2031.
What the IEA report says
The report names Australia, the UAE, the Netherlands, Greece and Spain as today’s leaders, each well above 1,200 kWh of solar PV generation per person in recent years. Over the forecast period the ranking shifts: the UAE becomes the largest generator of solar PV per capita worldwide, Oman and Bulgaria move into the top tier, and China enters the top 10 as the entry threshold roughly doubles.
The 2031 ranking on the IEA chart reads: UAE first, Australia second, Oman third, Bulgaria fourth and Qatar fifth, followed by Greece, Austria, Spain, China and Chile. All of them generate at least about 2,000 kWh per person. The global average more than doubles by 2031 but stays below 800 kWh. According to the IEA, this highlights persistent disparities in both deployment rates and access to solar generation.
| Indicator | IEA Renewables 2026 |
|---|---|
| UAE solar PV generation per person, 2031 | just over 4,000 kWh, rank 1 |
| UAE solar PV generation per person, 2025 | about 1,500 kWh, rank 2 |
| Other Middle East countries in the 2031 top 10 | Oman (3rd), Qatar (5th) |
| Top 10 entry level, 2031 | about 2,000 kWh per person |
| World average, 2031 | more than double the 2025 level, below 800 kWh |
| MENA renewable capacity, 2031 | almost 200 GW, more than double today |
| MENA capacity additions, 2026-2031 | 122 GW, almost 80% utility-scale solar PV |
| Global capacity growth, 2026-2031 | almost 4,800 GW, 57% more than in 2020-2025 |
The per-person values for 2025 and 2031 are read from the IEA chart and are approximate. The report text does not give an exact figure for each country.
Why the UAE moves to first place
The IEA revised its UAE outlook upwards this year. It points to plans to expand the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park from 5 GW to more than 7 GW and to more ambitious clean energy targets. In January 2026, the IEA notes, the country raised its clean energy target to 35% by 2031, up from 32% by 2030.
The Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure set out the same direction at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week on 14 January 2026. Eng Ahmed Al Kaabi, Assistant Undersecretary for Electricity, Water and Future Energy, named a renewable capacity target of more than 23 GW by 2031 and national investments in renewable and clean energy of more than AED 190 billion. We covered the target itself in our article on the UAE clean energy target of 35%.
The IEA also gives an energy security reason. The UAE is a net gas importer despite being a major hydrocarbon producer, so every unit of solar power reduces the gas the power system needs. In the region, the report expects Saudi Arabia to accelerate its renewable expansion fivefold between 2026 and 2031, followed by the UAE.
The Middle East picture: growth and risks
For MENA as a whole, the IEA forecast of almost 200 GW by 2031 is broadly unchanged from last year. Utility-scale solar PV accounts for almost 80% of the 122 GW of additions, onshore wind for 13% and distributed solar PV for 10%. By 2031 solar PV makes up 75% of the region’s installed renewable capacity, the highest share of any region.
Some reports of the IEA findings say Middle East capacity will triple. The report itself says that Southeast Asia, MENA and sub-Saharan Africa together triple their pace of renewable capacity growth, while installed capacity in MENA more than doubles.
The IEA also lists the risks to this forecast:
- Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the strait creates near-term supply chain and cost uncertainty that may delay some planned projects, although the IEA does not expect it to weaken long-term ambitions.
- Module imports. Combined Chinese solar module imports of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan, Iran and Lebanon fell 61% year on year in the first three quarters of 2026.
- Financing. One developer told the IEA that several financial closes and project agreement signings could slip by 6 to 12 months.
- Upside. If regulatory, grid and financing barriers are addressed, MENA could reach nearly 233 GW by 2031, almost 30% above the main forecast.
How projects are procured in the UAE
Across MENA as a whole, bilateral contracts between independent power producers and state utilities are the main procurement route, followed closely by auctions. In the UAE and Oman, according to the IEA, auctions remain the main mechanism. Both countries have also signed their first bilateral contracts for round-the-clock renewable power. The UAE is named among the countries adding battery storage, planning pumped storage and developing round-the-clock hybrid renewable projects.
At the Middle East Energy summit in September, Energy and Infrastructure Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said that reaching the 35% target will require new projects, stronger competition and broader opportunities for the private sector in power generation, The National and Emirates 24|7 reported. Recent deals show the scale of the financing involved, such as the refinancing of DEWA’s Noor Energy 1 solar plant.
What this means for companies in the UAE
The IEA report is a forecast. It does not change any law, fee or licensing rule. What it adds is an independent estimate of how fast solar capacity in the UAE will grow over the next six years, with the regional risks spelled out.
The pipeline creates work beyond the large developers: engineering and design, installation, operation and maintenance, storage systems, equipment supply and specialist staffing. A company that plans to work on solar and storage projects in the UAE usually needs:
- a UAE trade licence with business activities that match the actual work, such as installation, maintenance, consultancy or trading;
- a choice between mainland and free zone that fits where its clients and project sites are;
- a check of the registration and prequalification requirements of each utility or developer it plans to work for;
- a corporate bank account in the UAE;
- corporate tax registration, and VAT registration where the turnover threshold is met;
- work visas for engineers and site staff.
Two points from the report are worth building into project timelines: module supply to the region fell sharply in 2026, and some financial closes may move by 6 to 12 months.
How Atlant Capital can help
We help engineering, installation, trading and service companies enter the UAE market: choosing the jurisdiction and business activities, company setup on the mainland or in a free zone, opening a corporate bank account, visas for founders and staff, and tax registration. Our guide to company formation in the UAE sets out the steps, documents and typical timelines.
Conclusion
The IEA expects the UAE to lead the world in solar PV generation per person by 2031, at just over 4,000 kWh, compared with a global average below 800 kWh. The national targets behind this are 35% clean electricity and more than 23 GW of renewable capacity by 2031. For MENA, the IEA forecasts almost 200 GW of renewable capacity by 2031, with the Strait of Hormuz and module supply as the main near-term risks.
Source: International Energy Agency, Renewables 2026, UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, Emirates 24|7, The National.
FAQ
Which country will generate the most solar power per person by 2031?
The UAE. According to the IEA report Renewables 2026, published on 6 November 2026, the UAE becomes the largest generator of solar PV electricity per capita worldwide by 2031, ahead of Australia, Oman, Bulgaria and Qatar. In 2025 it ranked second behind Australia.
How much solar electricity per person will the UAE generate in 2031?
Just over 4,000 kWh per person, according to the IEA chart, up from about 1,500 kWh in 2025. The global average more than doubles by 2031 but stays below 800 kWh per person. All countries in the 2031 top 10 generate at least about 2,000 kWh per person.
What is the UAE clean energy target?
The UAE aims to generate 35% of its electricity from clean sources by 2031, raised in January 2026 from 32% by 2030. The Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure also names a renewable capacity target of more than 23 GW by 2031 and national investments in the sector of more than AED 190 billion.
How much will renewable capacity grow in the Middle East by 2031?
The IEA forecasts that renewable capacity in the Middle East and North Africa will more than double to almost 200 GW by 2031, with 122 GW added in 2026-2031. Almost 80% of the additions are utility-scale solar PV. In an accelerated case the region could reach nearly 233 GW.
