19 September 2026
International visitors are forecast to spend USD 408 billion in the Middle East by 2030, about AED 1.5 trillion, up 57 percent from 2025. That is an increase of USD 116 billion, roughly AED 426 billion, over five years. The region is expected to receive 316 million international arrivals by 2030. The figures come from the ATM Travel Trends Report 2026, produced by Arabian Travel Market in association with Tourism Economics and presented during Arabian Travel Market 2026, held at Dubai World Trade Centre from 14 to 17 September 2026.
What the report forecasts
The headline number is visitor spending rather than arrivals. Between 2025 and 2030 international visitors are expected to spend an additional USD 116 billion in the Middle East, taking total annual visitor spending to USD 408 billion. The 57 percent increase is faster than the growth in arrivals over the same period, which means the report assumes visitors will spend more per trip, not only that more of them will come.
Dave Goodger, managing director EMEA at Tourism Economics, presented the findings and framed them as structural rather than cyclical. “We are indeed optimistic about growth,” he said during the presentation, adding that travel is expected to expand on a structural basis over the next five years. He pointed to three drivers: travellers continuing to prioritise experiences, rising wealth and favourable demographics, and investment in tourism capacity across the region.
| Indicator | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Middle East visitor spending by 2030 | USD 408 billion, about AED 1.5 trillion |
| Increase in visitor spending, 2025 to 2030 | USD 116 billion, about AED 426 billion, plus 57 percent |
| International arrivals to the region by 2030 | 316 million |
| MENASA international travel growth in 2027 | 17 percent, against 8 percent globally |
| MENASA travel volumes in 2025 against 2019 | about 50 percent higher, roughly three times the global gain |
| Leisure nights by Chinese visitors by 2030 | plus 160 percent |
AED amounts are our conversion at the fixed rate of AED 3.6725 per US dollar. The report covers the Middle East for the spending and arrivals forecasts, and the wider MENASA region, meaning the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, for the travel growth comparisons.
The region is growing faster than the world
The gap between regional and global growth is the part of the forecast that matters most for businesses based here. Across MENASA, international travel is forecast to grow by 17 percent in 2027, more than twice the projected global rate of 8 percent.
That gap is not new. The report found that travel volumes across MENASA in 2025 were almost 50 percent higher than in 2019, around three times the growth recorded globally over the same period. In other words, the region did not simply recover to where it was before the pandemic; it moved well past it while much of the world was still catching up.
This is the same trend visible in the commercial decisions of large operators. Earlier this week we covered Hilton’s plan to roughly double its Middle East portfolio to 230 hotels, and in Abu Dhabi Miral committed AED 12 billion to Yas Island. Capacity is being built ahead of the demand the report projects.
China becomes a source market
Long haul markets are expected to carry a larger share of the next phase of growth, and China stands out. Leisure nights spent by Chinese visitors in the Middle East are forecast to rise by 160 percent by 2030.
A 160 percent increase in nights, rather than in arrivals, points to longer stays as well as more visitors. For hotels, retail, tour operators and food and beverage businesses, that is the difference between a transit market and a destination market. It also sets up competition between regional destinations for the same traveller, which is one reason the seven emirates moved to market themselves jointly under the unified Visit UAE brand.
AI is already inside the industry
The report also measured how far artificial intelligence has moved into travel operations, and the numbers are higher than many would assume. About 91 percent of Middle East travel businesses are either piloting or already using AI within their organisations. Of those, 85 percent reported measurable cost savings.
Traveller behaviour is moving in the same direction. Around 28 percent of travellers considering the Middle East have used an AI chatbot for travel planning, against 12 percent of travellers interested in other regions. The report notes that AI is starting to influence every stage of a journey, from choosing a destination and building an itinerary to booking and in trip support.
Recovery from disruption is getting faster
One finding cuts against the usual risk narrative. Recovery periods after major travel disruptions have fallen from around 24 months in the early 2000s to approximately 10 to 12 months in recent years. Markets absorb shocks and return to trend considerably faster than they used to.
The report does not dismiss near term risk. It expects geopolitical uncertainty to affect Middle East travel during 2026, while the five year outlook remains oriented towards growth. For a business planning entry, that is a timing question rather than a direction question.
What this means for companies in the UAE
A spending forecast is not a regulation and nothing changes on a given date. What it does change is the planning assumption for anyone whose revenue depends on visitors. Practical points worth acting on:
- the growth is in spending per visitor, not only visitor numbers, so premium and experience led offers are where the forecast puts the money;
- China moves from a marginal market to a planning priority, which affects language support, payment methods and distribution channels;
- AI adoption is already the norm rather than an advantage, with 91 percent of regional travel businesses using or piloting it;
- tourism facing activities in the UAE are licensed activities, so the licence must match what you actually sell, whether that is tour operation, event management, hospitality or retail;
- a corporate bank account is the practical bottleneck, because card acquiring, online payment links and supplier settlement all depend on it;
- seasonal and project staffing needs residency visas planned in advance, since quotas and processing time sit on the critical path.
For the broader regional picture, our earlier report on Gulf tourism reaching USD 254 billion covers the GCC specific numbers, and our coverage of Arabian Travel Market 2026 in Dubai sets out the event where this report was presented.
How Atlant Capital can help
We work with companies entering the UAE market in tourism, hospitality, events and retail, from the first structural decision through to a licensed and banked company. That covers the choice between mainland and free zone, selection of licence activities that genuinely match the services being sold, company setup in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and the other emirates, corporate bank account opening, and residency and work visas for founders and staff. For the full sequence from choosing a jurisdiction to receiving a licence, see our UAE company formation guide.
Conclusion
The ATM Travel Trends Report 2026 forecasts Middle East visitor spending of USD 408 billion by 2030, up 57 percent, on 316 million international arrivals, with MENASA travel growing 17 percent in 2027 against 8 percent globally. The detail that matters is where the growth sits: in spending per trip, in long haul markets led by China, and in businesses that have already put AI into their operations. For a company planning to serve that demand from the UAE, the decisions to settle first are licence activities, structure and banking, and they are best settled before a lease or a supplier contract is signed.
Source: Khaleej Times.
FAQ
How much will tourists spend in the Middle East by 2030?
International visitors are forecast to spend USD 408 billion a year in the Middle East by 2030, about AED 1.5 trillion at the fixed rate of AED 3.6725 per US dollar. That is an increase of USD 116 billion, or 57 percent, compared with 2025. The forecast comes from the ATM Travel Trends Report 2026, produced by Arabian Travel Market with Tourism Economics.
How many tourists will visit the Middle East by 2030?
The region is expected to receive 316 million international arrivals by 2030. Visitor spending is forecast to grow faster than arrivals over the same period, at 57 percent, which implies higher spending per trip rather than growth in volume alone. Across the wider MENASA region, international travel is forecast to grow by 17 percent in 2027 against 8 percent globally.
Which source markets will drive Middle East tourism growth?
Long haul markets are expected to play a larger role, with China the clearest example. Leisure nights spent by Chinese visitors in the Middle East are forecast to increase by 160 percent by 2030. Because the measure is nights rather than arrivals, it implies both more visitors and longer stays, which matters for hotels, retail and tour operators.
How widely is AI used by travel businesses in the Middle East?
About 91 percent of Middle East travel businesses are piloting or already using AI within their organisations, and 85 percent of those reported measurable cost savings. On the traveller side, 28 percent of people considering the Middle East have used an AI chatbot to plan a trip, compared with 12 percent of travellers interested in other regions.
